Saudi phosphate producer Maaden will load a 60,000t DAP cargo at Duqm, Oman, in late August or early September — for shipment to India. The cargo is priced on formula.
Maaden will also load the 55,000t of DAP it sold to buyers in east Africa earlier this month from Duqm in September, likely netting back to between the mid-$890s/t and mid-$900s/t fob.
It will need to transport the DAP by truck from its facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Mideast Gulf.
Maaden had been sending Ras Al-Khair exports through the strait of Hormuz. But after the strait's effective closure at the end of February, it resorted to trucking product to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast — mostly Yanbu.
Eastbound exports from Saudi Red Sea ports need to either cross the Bab El-Mandeb strait, or take the longer route through the Suez canal and around Africa.
Threats from Yemen's Houthi militants to Saudi shipping in late July have heightened risks in the Red Sea, especially around Bab el-Mandeb.
Argus understands that the freight cost for a 60,000t bulk DAP cargo from Saudi Red Sea ports to India is around $40/t, while the rate from Duqm to India is in the $20s/t. But congestion at Omani ports is reportedly high, pushing up demurrage rates. And hefty war risk premiums still apply to shipments in the region.
Maaden trimmed its 2026 phosphate production guidance to the equivalent of 6mn-6.5mn t of DAP in its latest quarterly results, citing a lack of sulphur and high logistical costs.
It is not clear whether Sabic — Saudia Arabia's other phosphate producer — also plans to load cargoes in Oman.